bird flu pandemic is coming

[felisdomesticus]

I have heard a lot about bird flu over the years--even attended a very interesting seminar about it last year at the NSTA convention. This is truly like a ticking time bomb--but I think about it slightly differently now that I own a bird. The good news is that I don't know anyone who travels through Asia who could transmit it to Scarlett nor do we have any pigs or other livestock in the area who could transmit it to me.



Saturday July 23, 2:14 AM
Massive flu outbreak could happen at any moment, WHO warns

The world could at any time be faced with a massive flu outbreak like those in 1918 or 1968 that killed tens of millions of people, the World Health Organization warned, urging countries to be prepared.

"History has told us that no one can stop a pandemic. The question is: when is it going to happen?" WHO spokeswoman Margaret Chan told reporters.

"I don't think anybody has the answer to it. We have to be on the lookout for any time, any day," she added.

Deadly avian influenza, which has killed 55 people in Asia since resurfacing in 2003, has the potential to become a major human pandemic if the virus were to mutate and allow human-to-human transmission, Chan said.

The HN51 strain of bird flu, which has killed hundreds of thousands of birds, constitutes one of several "warnings from nature" -- the first since 1968, according to Chan, Hong Kong's director of health from 1994 to 2003.

"We collectively, particularly national authorities, have to take a very conscientious decision: if you are given early signals and if you are not prepared, you have a very difficult case to answer if indeed it happens," she said.

"Our experience is that if you are prepared for a pandemic, you get less impact in terms of mortality, morbidity, social and economic disruption."

Chan admitted that preparation for a possible flu pandemic could divert resources from other health emergencies like the fight against AIDS or polio, but said such measures would improve the tracking of life-threatening diseases.

After Indonesia earlier this week announced its first human deaths from bird flu, and cases were reported in Siberian poultry, Chan warned that "the scope is getting wider and wider".

The WHO's greatest fear is that human influenza and bird flu could somehow combine to unleash a pandemic on the world.

"With winter coming, we need to enhance our vigilance," she said.

She reminded countries struck by bird flu to limit contact between humans and live poultry, as well as contact between different species in live markets.

Such rules were implemented in Hong Kong when bird flu first appeared in 1997, and no cases -- either in animals or humans -- have been reported there since, Chan added.

The expert said the Geneva-based WHO was still awaiting samples taken from migratory birds in China, 6,000 of which have died in Qinghai province since May.

Chinese researchers believe the strain afflicting their birds could be even more deadly than the HN51 strain.

"We have impressed upon them the importance of sharing these specimens. We will not give up our effort: we owe it to the world, it's a global health security issue," Chan told reporters.

http://sg.news.yahoo.com/050722/1/3tobx.html

[felisdomesticus]

here's an article about "swine flu" which seems not to be a viral influenza but rather a strep bacteria. Live and learn I guess. I have learned a lot about swine flu and bird flu acquiring genes from each other--very interesting phenomenon if this occurs between viruses and bacteria.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/8742214/


Updated: 2:32 p.m. ET July 28, 2005
BEIJING - The number of people infected by what Chinese authorities believe is a pig-borne bacterial disease in the southwest has jumped by 14 to 131, state media said on Thursday as officials insisted the outbreak could be controlled.

The World Health Organization said it was watching developments closely, but a spokesman said the disease appeared to be localized and posed no threat internationally.

China’s Ministry of Health said the death toll in rural eastern Sichuan province had risen to 31, the official Xinhua news agency said.

“We have the technology and procedures to bring the disease under control,” the China Daily quoted an unidentified ministry official as saying on Wednesday.

The rise in the number of people reported infected did not necessarily mean the disease was spreading, the China Daily said, because 12 had contracted the bacteria days before but were only diagnosed on Wednesday.

Human 'swine flu'?
Streptococcus suis, known in layman’s terms as swine flu, is endemic in swine in most pig-rearing countries in the world but human infections are rare. Although China’s state media has said no human-to-human infections have been found in Sichuan, the death toll is considered unusually high.

Swine flu is not known to have ever been passed between humans, but scientists fear it could mutate into a strain that could easily pass among people. Compounded with its deadliness, such a bug could unleash an epidemic, killing many people.

Victims were infected with the bacteria from slaughtering, handling or eating infected pigs, authorities have said.

“There is always a danger but this situation seems to be very localized,” said WHO spokesman Robert Dietz in the Philippines. “This doesn’t pose a real threat to international public health, like people in the neighboring countries becoming ill.”

“The fact that this is much larger than anything else we’re aware of historically makes us wonder just why that is.”

The unusually high mortality rate and reports that many of the victims died within 24 hours of showing symptoms have led some experts to wonder if it is indeed swine flu at all.

“It could be another disease altogether, it need not be streptococcus suis because the presentation is so atypical,” said Samson Wong, a microbiology associate professor at the University of Hong Kong.

Provincial officials declined to comment, and one said they had been given instructions to only give out information on the outbreak through official news releases.

Dead pigs unearthed
In one unconfirmed media report, the Chongqing Evening News said that police in nearby Jianyang city stopped meat dealer Chen Ping on July 21 when he cycled past with a sick pig and two dead ones on the back of his tricycle cart.

Chen was ordered to bury and disinfect the pigs he had just bought at a market, but the next day he returned to the burial site, dug out the carcasses and sold them at a market in another town for several times more than he had paid, the newspaper said.

Killing sick pigs to sell in markets or eat at home was common and farmers in affected areas had never been warned against the practice, the older brother of Chen Siyou, a man infected after slaughtering a pig, told the Chongqing Evening News.

“We’ve been doing this for years and no government official has ever come to talk to us about it,” the elder Chen said.

The China Daily said China had vaccines against the bacteria and two factories resumed production recently. The vaccine had not been produced for years due to a lack of demand, it said.

The last time swine flu broke out in China in a significant way was in 1998, when 22 people were infected, Dietz said, adding that Chinese scientists were convinced they were now dealing with the same strain of bacteria.

[felisdomesticus]

Russia: Bird Flu Kills Fowl in Siberia

By JIM HEINTZ
The Associated Press
Friday, July 29, 2005; 9:23 PM



MOSCOW -- Hundreds of fowl in Siberia have died of the same strain of bird flu that has infected humans throughout Asia, the Russian government said Friday.

No human infections have been reported from the Siberian outbreak, Russia's Agriculture Ministry said in the brief statement identifying the virus as avian flu type H5N1.

"That raises the need for undertaking quarantine measures of the widest scope," the statement said. Ministry officials could not be reached for elaboration.

Since 2003, the H5N1 strain has killed at least 57 people in Vietnam, Thailand, Cambodia and Indonesia, which reported its first three human deaths this month.

International health experts repeatedly have warned the bird flu virus could evolve into a highly contagious form passed easily from person to person, sparking a global pandemic. So far, most cases have been traced to contact with sick birds.

The outbreak in Russia's Novosibirsk region in central Siberia apparently started about two weeks ago when large numbers of chicken, geese, ducks and turkeys began dying. Officials say that all dead or infected birds were incinerated, but it was unclear whether that would effectively stop the virus from spreading.

Juan Lubroth, an animal health expert at the Rome-based U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization, said it was still not known how many birds have been exposed. He said the concern was whether birds that appear healthy might have the virus.

Earlier this week, Russia's chief government epidemiologist, Gennady Onishchenko, said the appearance of the virus in Russia could be due to migrating birds that rest on the Siberian region's lakes.

A recent report released by the journal Science said the finding of the H5N1 infection in migrant birds at Qinghai Lake in western China "indicates that this virus has the potential to be a global threat."

The reports echo concerns voiced by the World Health Organization, which urged China to step up its testing of wild geese and gulls. A WHO official estimated that the flu had killed more than 5,000 wild birds in western China.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...900734_pf.html

[PyscoFalcon]

There's also a strain going round Guinea Pigs. I've lost 2 this week to it and others are still shaky.

All thanx to the farm not quarentining there new sheep!

[ParrotJoe]

Despite the spooky news reports I don't think we have anything to worry about. All these outbreaks are having on other parts of the world, usually in the poorest parts where they are too uneducated or not humane enough to keep good living condition for their animals. The result is all sorts of sicknesses get spawned there. I think most of the news reports try to sound so dramatic for better ratings.
"an animal sickness COULD mutate into a human sickness which COULD spread around and world and KILL lots of people without us being able to stop it!"

Not to undermine your post, I think its interesting, just throwing this out there so people don't feel the need to be alarmed.

[felisdomesticus]

Originally Posted by ParrotJoe

Despite the spooky news reports I don't think we have anything to worry about. All these outbreaks are having on other parts of the world, usually in the poorest parts where they are too uneducated or not humane enough to keep good living condition for their animals.

but in this day and age all it takes is for one globetrotter to become infected and then to travel to America, Europe, etc. and, actually, it isn't a matter of good living conditions for animals that has caused the "deadly" bird flu strains--it's more of their close proximity to other animals like pigs and humans

"an animal sickness COULD mutate into a human sickness which COULD spread around and world and KILL lots of people without us being able to stop it!"

It's more a matter of human influenza virus acquiring genes from other types of flu viruses. The problem comes when human flu and bird flu infect a common host at the same time--like a pig. When the new viral particles are being assembled they may be interchanged, swapped if you will, so that your human flu virus now is still transmitted through casual contact (sneezing, coughing, etc) but has different protein markers (from bird flu) on the outside coat so as not to be recognizable to your immune system. Humans have gotten bird flu from swine over in Asia but the good news is that none of those flues had the ability to be passed from person to person. We would all be in very big trouble if they do acquire that capacity--or I should say WHEN they do.

[felisdomesticus]

this is a good link to a brief explanation of why bird flu is so scary

http://www.millerandlevine.com/news/flu/index-6.html

I saw Levine give an awesome presentation on the topic back in April.

[DocT]

I have to sort of agree with Joe on this suject. I think we have enough people worried about what may be wrong with their birds without having another thing to worry about that hasn't happened yet and in all probabilty won't.

Bonnie

[felisdomesticus]

It's more a matter of what will happen to PEOPLE if our human flu acquires bird flu genes and/or traits.

[felisdomesticus]

Russia bird flu could spread to EU - vet official By Aleksandras Budrys
Mon Aug 1,10:58 AM ET

MOSCOW (Reuters) - A strain of bird flu dangerous to humans could spread to parts of the European Union from Siberia, a senior Russian veterinary official warned on Monday.

Chances were "very high" the strain found in the Novosibirsk region could spread to other parts of Siberia, the official from the Russian Veterinary and Phytosanitary Inspection Service told Reuters.

"There is also a possibility that bird flu could spread to the European Union as (infected) wild birds from China may have been in contact in Russia with birds that will fly on to the Netherlands, France and elsewhere," the official said.

"North America is not safe either, as some birds from Russia fly there, too," said the official who did not wish to be named.

The official said it had been confirmed on Friday that birds in the Novosibirsk region were infected with the H5N1 strain of bird flu, which is dangerous to humans, and not with H5N2, as had previously been believed.

Bird flu is split in strains such as H5 and H7, which in turn have nine different subtypes. H5N1 subtype is highly pathogenic and can be passed from birds to humans, although there have been no known cases of human to human transmission.

More than 50 people have died in Asia from H5N1 since late 2003, raising fears it could mutate and form the basis of a global epidemic.

Later, the Agriculture Ministry said bird flu had also been found in poultry in a farm in another region, Altai, between Novosibirsk and Kazakhstan.

"A quarantine has been imposed in all the affected locations, and necessary measures are being taken to isolate the pockets of infection," the statement said.

It said that heads of regional veterinary services have been instructed to organize measures to prevent the spreading of the disease.

Veterinary officials were examining samples taken on farms in other Siberian regions where migrating wild birds from China may have landed.

The official said neighboring Kazakhstan, where deaths of poultry and wild birds in the northern Pavlodar region have been registered last month, may also have a bird flu strain similar to Russia's.

"We have been in contact with the Kazakhs. The probability that they have the same type of virus is very high, as some birds fly to Russia from China through Kazakhstan. But it will take some time to have it confirmed," the official said.

A spokesman for the Russian emergencies ministry said on Monday that so far no cases of humans being infected with bird flu had been registered.

He said over 2,000 birds died of the virus in 18 villages in Novosibirsk region. Experts were also checking cases of deaths of poultry and wild birds in the neighboring regions of Omsk and Altai.

(Additional reporting by Tatyana Mosolova in Moscow and Raushan Nurshayeva in Astana)

http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=stor...a_birdflu_dc_1