World Health Org.: Human Risk From Bird Flu "Very Low"

[yehudasf]

BS"D

As I have pointed out in other threads, the hysteria in the media surrounding the H5N1 influenza virus is naught more than the "flavour-of-the-month" media sensation. HERE is a link to an article from the WHO about the REAL risk to humans from the "so-called" bird flu. I also am including a post of mine from a different "bird flu" thread:

This so-called "bird flu" is little more than a media fascination. The h5n1 variant influenza virus, like every other influenza virus that we humans as a species have endured since time immemorial, originates in the lower gastro-intestinal tract of, primarily, wild waterfowl. Ducks, Greebs, Geese, etc. . The migratory patterns of these birds allows for faecal (theirs) contamination of water supplies (both human & wild/domestic fowl, as well as the bird-to-bird transmission that will occur as the migrating flocks meet & mingle with native fowl. This is the primary reason that we have to have different influenza vaccines each year. We never know what mutation will occur in the virus as it incubates in the wild flocks. Thus the Hong Kong-A, the Hong Kong-B Tiawan-A etc.... While indeed the (might happen) mutation of the h5n1 strain to a human-to-human vector transmissible pathogen is not a pleasant thought, it is not some great apocolyptic medical catastrophe as it has been made out in the media. Simple precautions can reduce our & our psittazen companion's risks to near zero. Don't travel on an aeroplane. The enclosed recirculated air is just not suitable for the avoidance of any lurking pathogens. Don't get around small children (pre-school through 10th form) this population is the largest vector of rhinovirus transmission. Minimise your interactions with groups of strangers, especially in enclosed, recirculated air, heated environments (malls, restaurants, cinemas, theatres.) If you must go out & touch things.. doorknobs, surfaces, handles, straps or rails on a bus train or mass transit vehicle (or taxi), wear gloves. Simple cotton gloves are sold at drug stores such as walgreens (used for covering ointment applied to hands) this simple physical barrier, combined with assiduously avoiding touching your face with your hands unless they have been washed, will take you far toward neutralising the primary pathway of infection. Do not take your birds out amongst the populace. If you have an outdoor play area, make certain that it is treated (every time) with a virucidal agent before they touch it. If you have any doubts that the pathogen is in your locale, don't take them outside at all. This influenza will pass within 6 - 18 months, & be nothing more than an unpleasant (& quite possibly grossly overblown) incident. With a bit of planning, & consistently observed infection control protocols, we & our companion psittazens will emerge unfazed, & unscathed.

[felisdomesticus]

Tell that to the TENS of millions who were killed by Spanish flu in 1918. That was just an older version of this hybrid flu.

YOU may not travel on an airplane but millions of other Americans do every single day. They would never know they were infected until they were already in the air or home. AND it wouldn't even require travel outside of your place of employment or the grocery store once it can travel from human-human.

You all can continue to believe that it is hysteria and a farce. I, myself, am taking it very seriously and am preparing for a neighborhood quarantine and in-house lock-down.

this virus has a 55% mortality rate. If you want to play Russian Roulette with your life by believing it is hyped up crap--that's your right, but it's a shame.

My students got a 3 day lesson/discussion on bird flu last month after we finished learning about viruses, their structure, replication, etc. EVERY SINGLE DAY they come into class telling me "Ms. Felis, it's hit Russia--why aren't Americans worried?" "Ms. Felis, they are killing turkeys in Turkey!" I'm so proud of them for understanding the threat it poses.

Interesting article I posted a few months ago:
Saturday July 23, 2:14 AM
Massive flu outbreak could happen at any moment, WHO warns

The world could at any time be faced with a massive flu outbreak like those in 1918 or 1968 that killed tens of millions of people, the World Health Organization warned, urging countries to be prepared.

"History has told us that no one can stop a pandemic. The question is: when is it going to happen?" WHO spokeswoman Margaret Chan told reporters.

"I don't think anybody has the answer to it. We have to be on the lookout for any time, any day," she added.

Deadly avian influenza, which has killed 55 people in Asia since resurfacing in 2003, has the potential to become a major human pandemic if the virus were to mutate and allow human-to-human transmission, Chan said.

The HN51 strain of bird flu, which has killed hundreds of thousands of birds, constitutes one of several "warnings from nature" -- the first since 1968, according to Chan, Hong Kong's director of health from 1994 to 2003.

"We collectively, particularly national authorities, have to take a very conscientious decision: if you are given early signals and if you are not prepared, you have a very difficult case to answer if indeed it happens," she said.

"Our experience is that if you are prepared for a pandemic, you get less impact in terms of mortality, morbidity, social and economic disruption."

Chan admitted that preparation for a possible flu pandemic could divert resources from other health emergencies like the fight against AIDS or polio, but said such measures would improve the tracking of life-threatening diseases.

After Indonesia earlier this week announced its first human deaths from bird flu, and cases were reported in Siberian poultry, Chan warned that "the scope is getting wider and wider".

The WHO's greatest fear is that human influenza and bird flu could somehow combine to unleash a pandemic on the world.

"With winter coming, we need to enhance our vigilance," she said.

She reminded countries struck by bird flu to limit contact between humans and live poultry, as well as contact between different species in live markets.

Such rules were implemented in Hong Kong when bird flu first appeared in 1997, and no cases -- either in animals or humans -- have been reported there since, Chan added.

The expert said the Geneva-based WHO was still awaiting samples taken from migratory birds in China, 6,000 of which have died in Qinghai province since May.

Chinese researchers believe the strain afflicting their birds could be even more deadly than the HN51 strain.

"We have impressed upon them the importance of sharing these specimens. We will not give up our effort: we owe it to the world, it's a global health security issue," Chan told reporters.

http://sg.news.yahoo.com/050722/1/3tobx.html

[yehudasf]

BS"D

Your comparison to the Spanish (or French in Spain) Influenza is specious. The changes in medical abilities between 1918 & 2005 are without parallel in human history. Did you bother to read today's article from WHO? The only vector of transmission is fowl to human, the entire possibility of human-to-human vector mutation is still quite remote. Remember, the mutation would have to take place in a human, not a fowl. If you have fallen for the press hysteria, enjoy the drama. As a retired physician, I see a cynical attempt to frighten folks into purchasing more "media" & a really good method of driving the stock value of Roche up through the roof. Note the extremely small number of cases so far, Greatly under 200... & that is in countries that have literally millions of farmers working with fowl in the most unsanitary of conditions. Even those few cases, the mortality rate is around 48 - 50%. Mind also that the affected populations have very little access to health care as we in the West know it. The pre-existing, underlying conditions they may have been suffering from no doubt played a great role in both their contracting of & mortality from the H5N1 variant influenza strain. Buying into the hype will serve no one other than those who stand to profit from the cynical manipulation of human fear. I would be cautious if I were rearing large numbers of commercial fowl in an outdoor, unsanitary setting. Exactly the opposite of what one finds in the US.

[felisdomesticus]

Originally Posted by yehudasf

The only vector of transmission is fowl to human, the entire possibility of human-to-human vector mutation is still quite remote. Remember, the mutation would have to take place in a human, not a fowl.

Well there have been at least 2 cases of human to human transmission documented within the past year.

AND the mutation DOES NOT have to happen in a human. All you need is for a pig to be infected by both human and bird influenza, as they catch both. that is a great way for a recombinant strain to be created. When they all live together in Asia--that is a great place for deadly flues to be created, like Asian flu, Taiwan flu, Shanghai flu, Hong Kong flu, and this new one.

[yehudasf]

BS"D

Take a few courses in virology. The mutation necessary to cause human-to-human vector mutation occuring in swine or equine populations is vanishingly small. The World Health Organisation is quite clear that the only real threat "bird flu" poses to general human populations is if, and only if their is a human host with a pre-existing *different* viral influenza infection who contracts the variant form H5N1, & their RNA does the "swap-n-shop"tango resulting in a human-human vector transmission mutation. Anything else is Michael Crichton novel plot unlikely. By all means, if you enjoy the drama of "apocolyptic cassandra doomsaying" go for it. It is still medically unlikely, & our populations would be far better served concentrating on far more real & imminent public health threats.

[Stasia]

yehudasf,

Thanks for posting that. I know there has been a lot of discussion here about this flu which I read and consider all of it, and I have to admit I get anxious about it, so it's nice to see some info. on both sides. I'm not saying that I think the flu is coming or it isn't, but it can all get overwhelming to think about it and I enjoy reading the more reassuring articles. Thanks again!

Stasia

[felisdomesticus]

Originally Posted by yehudasf

Take a few courses in virology.

I have. I have a degree in biology and specialized in genetics.

I hope that you are right. I hope that I can say in a year or 2 that "you were right, yehudasf." I'm not so arrogant to believe that my opinions are the end-all and be-all. I truly hope that I am wrong.

That being said, I fear I am not. I hope I am, but I am preparing for things if I'm not.

[yehudasf]

BS"D

FelisDomesticus,

I do not mean to imply that you are wrong qua wrong, I simply cannot believe that the most respected virologist in the world could be so completely wrong in their assesment. The natural history of human - influenza interactions lends little support to the assertion that this particular variant, H5N1, would be the genetic "successor" to the pandemic pathogen of 1918. The original WHO paper that posited the imminent appearance of a human-human vector transmission mutation of H5n1, with an attendant estimate of 150 -300 millions deaths was withdrawn after review (in a period of only 5 days) by the head of WHO, & the author was summarilly dismissed. Again, I cannot accept the idea that the United States Government would allow Roche Pharmaceuticals (holders of the world-wide exclusive patent on the only currently "assumed" effective medication Tamiflu) to refuse to allow generic manufacturing of Tamiflu to meet world needs, if there were genuine belief by the medical (not political) experts that a pandemic were in the offing. Roche cannot produce (at best) more than another 75 million doses of Tamiflu before February 2006 (the height of the influenza season). My fear is that another "normal" variant influenza strain, much like those that appear every year, will go largely ignored & no vaccine will be manufactured for it, which could well result in a dreadful toll on the old, infirm, chronically immune-suppressed, very young & front-line health care workers. This simply because a frightened public will be clamouring for a medication efficacious against a pathogen that might well never appear in any clinically significant manner.

[felisdomesticus]

Originally Posted by yehudasf

Again, I cannot accept the idea that the United States Government would allow Roche Pharmaceuticals (holders of the world-wide exclusive patent on the only currently "assumed" effective medication Tamiflu) to refuse to allow generic manufacturing of Tamiflu to meet world needs, if there were genuine belief by the medical (not political) experts that a pandemic were in the offing. Roche cannot produce (at best) more than another 75 million doses of Tamiflu before February 2006 (the height of the influenza season).

I taught my students all about avian flu after we discussed basic virus structure and replication schemes. I was so proud of them when they got all angry at Roche after reading an article that mentioned Tamiflu and our position on the waiting list.

They also wanted to hijack the patent and product Tamiflu here in the USA. and they are only high school students with just the knowledge of the situation that I have.

Every day they come into class and say "Ms. Felis, I've heard THIS about bird flu...." I'm so impressed with them.

[Rue]

...I'm too busy and too tired to be alarmist...

...I think I'll worry when there's actually something to worry about...so much of this media-hyped hysteria never amounts to anything...

...I believe one is more likely to be killed in a car accident than anything else...and I don't see all that much happening to reduce the incident of traffic accidents...

Yes, I can die of a flu, or of West Nile, or Whooping Cough, or of a kazillion other germs or disorders...

...I suggest we all take a deep breath, relax, and buckle up! Oh yeah...get off the cell phones while you're at it...